Pittsburgh Pirates

39% win

pred 5.4

Marco Gonzales

FINAL

Philadelphia Phillies

61% win

pred 3.5

Spencer Turnbull

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
PIT	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	3	5
PHI	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	4	9

2024-04-13 Citizens Bank Park 0°F

Top DFS Results

Player	Pos	FP	Sal	Val
Kyle Schwarber	UTIL	22.0	$5.5k	4.0
Oneil Cruz	UTIL	13.5	$5.1k	2.7
Nick Castellanos	UTIL	9.0	$3.9k	2.3
Cristian Pache	UTIL	4.5	$2.1k	2.1
Alika Williams	UTIL	5.0	$2.4k	2.1
Ke'Bryan Hayes	UTIL	9.0	$4.6k	2.0
Bryan Reynolds	UTIL	9.0	$5.4k	1.7
Alec Bohm	UTIL	7.0	$4.2k	1.7
Trea Turner	UTIL	7.0	$5.7k	1.2
Johan Rojas	UTIL	2.5	$2.7k	0.9
Edward Olivares	UTIL	2.5	$3.2k	0.8
Bryce Harper	UTIL	0.5	$5.9k	0.1

Predictions

Philadelphia Phillies

ML · Model 61% vs Mkt 58%

-155 · $65 per $100

WIN

Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5

RL · 3.4 off line

-162 · $62 per $100

WIN

OVER 8.5

TOTAL · Proj 8.9 vs Line 8.5

-110 · $91 per $100

LOSS

Philadelphia Phillies ML + Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 + OVER 8.5

SGP · 3-leg same-game parlay

+408 · $408 per $100

LOSS

PIT 39% 61% PHI

Total Runs

Line	Over	Under
5.5	83.6%	16.4%
6.5	75.8%	24.2%
7.5	65.3%	34.7%
8.5	57.7%	42.3%
9.5	46.9%	53.1%
10.5	39.4%	60.6%
11.5	30.9%	69.1%
12.5	24.4%	75.6%

Run Line (margin)

Line	PHI covers	PIT covers
PHI -1.5	41.0%	31.4%
PHI -2.5	31.2%	23.5%
PHI -3.5	23.5%	16.2%

Team Totals

Line	PHI	PIT
O 3.5	68.5%	58.3%
O 4.5	52.9%	44.6%
O 5.5	39.0%	33.5%
O 6.5	28.1%	25.3%

Odds

moneyline PHI 61% · -155 · $65 per $100

Book	PIT	Impl%	PHI	Impl%
DraftKings	+130	41.7%	-155	58.3%

runline Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 · -162 · $62 per $100

PHI -1.5: PHI 3.5 − 1.5 = 2.0 vs PIT 5.4 no bet

PIT +1.5: PIT 5.4 + 1.5 = 6.9 vs PHI 3.5 BET ✓

Book	PIT		PHI
DraftKings	+1.5	-162	-1.5	+136

total Over 8.5 · -110 · $91 per $100

Book	Over	Under
DraftKings	O 8.5 -112	U 8.5 -108

Player Projections actual (projected)

Pittsburgh Pirates

Batter	Pos	H	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB	K	Proj DFS	Act DFS
Oneil Cruz	CF	1.0	0.1	0.6	0.5	0.2	0.3	1.3	8.6	—
Bryan Reynolds	RF	1.0	0.1	0.6	0.6	0.1	0.4	1.1	8.0	—
Ke'Bryan Hayes	3B	1.0	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.1	0.4	1.0	7.7	—
Edward Olivares	OF	1.0	0.1	0.6	0.6	0.1	0.3	0.9	7.4	—
Jack Suwinski	LF	0.8	0.1	0.5	0.6	0.1	0.4	1.1	7.2	—
Connor Joe	OF	0.8	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.0	0.4	0.9	7.1	—
Rowdy Tellez	1B	0.8	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.0	0.3	1.0	7.1	—
Henry Davis	C	0.8	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.0	0.4	1.0	6.6	—
Alika Williams	SS	0.8	0.0	0.4	0.4	0.0	0.3	1.0	5.8	—

Pitcher	Role	IP	K	H	BB	ER	Win%	App%	Proj DFS	Act DFS	+/-
Marco Gonzales	Starter	5.6	4.8	6.2	1.9	3.5	39%	100%	8.3	—

Philadelphia Phillies

Batter	Pos	H	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB	K	Proj DFS	Act DFS
Kyle Schwarber	LF	1.0	0.2	0.8	0.6	0.0	0.5	1.0	12.8	—
Bryce Harper	1B	1.0	0.2	0.6	0.7	0.1	0.4	0.9	11.6	—
Trea Turner	SS	1.2	0.2	0.7	0.6	0.2	0.3	0.9	11.1	—
Nick Castellanos	RF	1.0	0.1	0.5	0.6	0.1	0.3	0.8	10.6	—
Alec Bohm	3B	1.1	0.1	0.6	0.7	0.0	0.3	0.8	9.8	—
Edmundo Sosa	2B	1.0	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.0	0.2	0.8	9.1	—
Cristian Pache	CF	0.9	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.0	0.3	0.8	8.9	—
Garrett Stubbs	C	0.9	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.0	0.3	0.7	7.8	—
Johan Rojas	CF	0.9	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.1	0.2	0.8	7.2	—

Pitcher	Role	IP	K	H	BB	ER	Win%	App%	Proj DFS	Act DFS	+/-
Spencer Turnbull	Starter	5.2	5.5	4.9	1.8	2.5	51%	100%	16.2	—

Box Score

Pittsburgh Pirates — Hitting

Player	AB	H	2B	HR	RBI	BB	K	Sal	Proj	FP	+/-
Oneil Cruz	4	1		1	2		1	$5,100 — —	8.6	13.5	+4.9
Bryan Reynolds	1	1				3		$5,400 — —	8.0	9.0	+1.0
Ke'Bryan Hayes	3	1	1		1	1		$4,600 — —	7.7	9.0	+1.3
Jack Suwinski	4						2	$3,700 — —	7.2	-1.0	-8.2
Edward Olivares	4	1					1	$3,200 — —	7.4	2.5	-4.9
Rowdy Tellez	4						2	$3,200 — —	7.1	-1.0	-8.1
Connor Joe	4						2	$4,100 — —	7.1	-1.0	-8.1
Henry Davis	4						2	$3,100 — —	6.6	-1.0	-7.6
Alika Williams	3	1				1		$2,400 — —	5.8	5.0	-0.8
TOTALS	31	5	1	1	3	5	10		65.5	35.0

Pitching

Pitcher	IP	H	ER	K	BB	HR	BF	Sal	Proj	FP	+/-
Marco Gonzales	6.0	6	2	5	3	1	27	$6,400 — —	8.3	17.5	+9.2
Aroldis Chapman	0.1	1	1		2	0	4	— — —	—	-3.1
Colin Holderman	0.2		0	1		0	2	— — —	—	3.5
Hunter Stratton	1.0		0	2		0	3	— — —	—	6.3
Jose E. Hernandez	0.1	1	0	1	1	0	3	— — —	—	1.5
Roansy Contreras	0.0	1	1			0	2	— — —	—	—

Philadelphia Phillies — Hitting

Player	AB	H	2B	HR	RBI	BB	K	Sal	Proj	FP	+/-
Kyle Schwarber	3	3		1	1	2		$5,500 — —	12.8	22.0	+9.2
Trea Turner	4	1	1			1		$5,700 — —	11.1	7.0	-4.1
Bryce Harper	4					1	3	$5,900 — —	11.6	0.5	-11.1
Alec Bohm	4	1			1	1		$4,200 — —	9.8	7.0	-2.8
Nick Castellanos	5	2			2		2	$3,900 — —	10.6	9.0	-1.6
Edmundo Sosa	3						1	$2,300 — —	9.1	-0.5	-9.6
Garrett Stubbs	4							$2,600 — —	7.8	0.0	-7.8
Cristian Pache	3	1				1	1	$2,100 — —	8.9	4.5	-4.4
Johan Rojas	3	1					1	$2,700 — —	7.2	2.5	-4.7
Bryson Stott	1							— — —	—	0.0
Brandon Marsh	1						1	— — —	—	-0.5
TOTALS	35	9	1	1	4	6	9		88.7	51.5

Pitching

Pitcher	IP	H	ER	K	BB	HR	BF	Sal	Proj	FP	+/-
Spencer Turnbull	4.0	4	3	3	4	1	20	$7,900 — —	16.2	3.6	-12.6
Matt Strahm	2.0		0	5		0	6	— — —	—	14.5
Gregory Soto	0.2	1	0		1	0	4	— — —	—	0.3
José Alvarado	1.0		0	1		0	3	— — —	—	4.3
Jeff Hoffman	1.0		0	1		0	3	— — —	—	4.3